Characterization of Systematic Variations in Met Parameters: Impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation?

Abstract

In the word “Climate Change,” the major component is systematic variations in meteorological parameters such as rainfall, temperature, cyclones, and hurricanes. World Meteorological Organization in 1966 released a manual with the caption “Climate Change.” The manual presented methods to analyze the data series such as moving average technique, iterative regression approach, trigonometric approach, and power spectrum method. Studied systematic variations in rainfall (India), temperature (Global, USA, India and Australia), cyclonic storms (India), and hurricanes (USA) and discussed with reference to El Nino Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) factors, Phillippines Typhoons, USA Tornadoes. Indian rainfall at the national level presented 60-year cycle similar to the Telugu Astrological cycle. The river water flows followed this cycle (three rivers, namely, Chinab, Ravi and Bias from North-west India, Bramhaputra River from North-east India and Godavari River from Central-east India). Undivided Andhra Pradesh (AP) rainfall data series and Telangana (TG) Meteorological sub-division rainfall series presented 132-year cycle. TG in addition also presented 58 year cycle. Coastal Andhra (CA) and Rayalaseema meteorological sub-divisions presented in both the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) and Northeast Monsoon seasons 56-year cycle but they presented in opposite phase. The global adjusted average annual temperature data series presented a 60-year cycle with the global warming component of 0.45°C for 1951–2100. However, by replacing the surface data by satellite data, no trend was noted in 2008 by the present author. Later, this satellite data series was deleted from the internet and introduced new data series that showed steep rise in temperature that showed global warming. In fact, satellite data should be lower than the surface data as it accounts oceans that cover around three-forths of global area and rural-cold-island effects part that forms a major part of one-fourth of land surface area; that helped bringing down the temperature and thus the global warming trend must be nearly zero. Indian temperature presented typical patterns. Maximum temperature series presented a depression that followed above the average part of 60-year cycle of All-India average annual rainfall (1927/28–19567/57). However, with the lesser degree, this is also reflected in the mean annual and mean annual minimum temperatures. The Australian surface air and sea surface temperatures presented 120-year cycle with zero trend and thus zero global warming for 1951–2100 with the starting and the ending parts presenting extremes. The Bay of Bengal cyclones followed 56-year cycle of SWM season CA met sub-division with no trend. USA hurricanes presented 60-year cycle but presented an increasing trend unlike Bay of Bengal cyclones. Tornadoes confined to one part of the USA and Typhoons confined to one part of the Philippines. ENSO showed no impact on systematic variations.